A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
