How This Unusual Season Shattered the Typical Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.
On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.
Yet the latest competition is profoundly different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.
This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.
The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.
During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a typical year!
Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short here.
4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more impressively, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.
The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.
After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.
The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.
Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.
Still
